Bi-Weekly Fantasy Football Recap - Saturday 9/02
TLDR:
Don’t have time to read the entire newsletter? Check out the bullet points below for a quick recap of everything going on this week.
Main Recaps:
Jonathan Taylor unable to find a trade partner, leaving him on the PUP list and missing the first 4 games of the season
Nick Folk has been traded to the Titans
Fantasy managers are trying their best to avoid drafting players from the Colts, Cardinals, and Buccaneers
Running backs tend to decline after having a season with 375+ touches the year before
Dameon Pierce said he is playing even “angrier” this year
George Kittle will not practice the rest of the week due to an injury
Joe Burrow is back at practice after being out for over a month
Kareem Hunt has a lot of offers being sent his way but he is waiting for the right team
Vikings OC compares rookie WR Jordan Addison to Justin Jefferson
The Jets might be a little overhyped
Alexander Mattison, Cam Akers, James Conner, Dameon Pierce, and Joe Mixon should see a lot of red zone work this year
RB Myles Gaskin signs with the Vikings
WR Cooper Kupp is facing a hamstring injury setback and is now day-to-day
WR Tyreek Hill will not face any disciplinary action from the NFL regarding his off season issues
49ers to be more cautious with RB McCaffery’s workload this year
Dolphins place CB Jalen Ramsey and RB Jeff Wilson on IR
WR Terry McLaurin not seen at practice on Thursday
RB Deon Jackson will start week 1 for the Colts
Star WR Mike Evans threatens holding out if he doesn’t get a new contract by week 1
Justin Tucker, Brandon McManus, Younghoe Koo, Cameron Dicker, Jake Elliot, and Daniel Carlson are the top kickers you should target in the draft
Justin Fields is a must draft QB
Breaking Player News:
No Deal Found For RB Jonathan Taylor, He’s Staying A Colt
After all the speculation this week, the Colts were unable to find a trade partner for Jonathan Taylor so he will be staying a Colt (for now). Since no trade was finalized today, Taylor will also now remain on the PUP list making him ineligible to play for the first 4 games of the year which is a bummer to anybody who drafted him early. Taylor not playing is a huge loss to the Colts offense. Last year they only scored 25 offensive touchdowns all season and without Taylor they will most likely struggle now to get to the red zone in the first place. People are speculating that Taylor will sit out even longer than the 4 weeks which would be the worst case scenario for fantasy players & Colts fans. If Taylor does sit out longer, don’t be surprised if the Colts sign someone like Kareem Hunt.
Kicker Nick Folk Has Been Traded To The Titans
The Patriots are sending veteran kicker Nick Folk to the Tennessee Titans. The Patriots are now rolling out with rookie kicker Chad Ryland who should expect to see a lot of field goal attempts. Nick Folk on the other hand, might not get as many attempts as he once did. Titans head coach Mike Vrabel doesn’t attempt too many long range field goals and the Titans also have one of the highest red zone TD% in the league so don’t expect too many long range attempts from Folk this year.
RB Myles Gaskin Signs With The Minnesota Vikings
After being released from the Dolphins yesterday, Gaskin has made it official with the Vikings. He will now be reuniting with his former head coach Brian Flores (Vikings Defensive Coordinator). This signing is good news for anyone who owns RB Alexander Mattison as he will remain the main back. People were worried the Vikings were going to sign a bigger name running back but that’s not the case.
RB Dameon Pierce Says He’s Playing “Even Angrier” This Year
Pierce had quite the rookie campaign before missing the last 4 games of the season with a foot injury. Now that he is healthy again, he is back and ready to play even harder. In a press interview, Pierce stated “I don’t have good intentions this year, I have to find ways to play even angrier”. Some fantasy players seem to be sleeping on him but everyone should be keeping him on their radar.
Free Agent RB Kareem Hunt Has Had Four Teams Make Him An Offer But He Is Waiting For The Right One
Everyone wants to know where Kareem Hunt will end up. There has been some speculation that he will go to the Dolphins or the Colts but apparently there are more teams in the mix. Hunt has received four different offers so far but said he is waiting for the right team and offer to come along before he signs. Wherever he goes expect him to shake up the running back depth chart - his signing will be important to watch for all fantasy players.
Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill Will Not Face Any Disciplinary Action From The NFL Regarding His Offseason Incident
Over the offseason, Tyreek Hill allegedly hit a marina employee during a “disagreement” between the two. People were expecting the NFL to punish him for these alleged actions, however the NFL came out this week and said that Hill will not face any disciplinary action from them. For Hill owners, this is good news for the start WR. He will not miss any weeks due to suspension and will be ready to go come week 1.
RB Deon Jackson Will Be Colts Week 1 Starter While Taylor Is Out
With Jonathan Taylor out for 4 weeks and Zack Moss still recovering from his own injury, Deon Jackson will now lead the Colts backfield week 1. Jackson started a handful of games last year while Taylor was out and averaged 10.1 fantasy points a week when he got over 10 rushing attempts. He will definitely be a person to watch. If he can hold his own while Taylor and Moss are out, he could very well be worth picking up.
Breaking Team News:
Vikings Offensive Coordinator Calls Rookie WR Jordan Addison A Stud And Compares Him To Justin Jefferson
During Wednesday’s media session, Vikings OC Wes Phillips said that Jordan Addison looks like a stud and how it’s like they have two Justin Jeffersons. This is a huge compliment to receive and fantasy managers should be targeting Addison in their drafts. It is looking like he will have a big year and might even surpass TJ Hockenson as the Vikings #2 pass target. This is also great news for any Kirk Cousins owners as he now has another explosive target to throw to.
49ers To Sit RB Christian McCaffrey More Than The Panthers Did To Avoid Overloading Him
When Christian McCaffrey was on the Panthers he was overworked which plagued him with injuries. . Now that he is on the 49ers, they plan to use him differently. The 49ers said that they will give McCaffrey more breaks and less touches than the Panthers in order to prevent their star RB from getting injured. Most people agree that they would rather have CMC take less rush attempts if it means he will make it all 17 weeks . Regardless of him having a reduced workload, McCaffrey should still have a dominant season and finish as a top RB if he can stay healthy. This is also good news for the other weapons on the 49ers offense like Aiyuk, Samuel, and Mitchell. With McCaffrey getting less touches, the ball will be coming their way more too.
WR Mike Evans Warns Buccaneers Of Possible Holdout If He Doesn’t Get A New Contract By Week 1
Mike Evans is entering the final year of his current deal and is already looking for a new contract before the season starts. It appears the Bucs are going to be bad this year so Evans probably wants a large deal while his value is still high. It is unlikely the Bucs will have a new contract finalized in time,so it will be interesting to see what happens. If he does hold out, Chris Godwin’s stock will go way up. Evans also looks like he could be a good mid season trade candidate. The Buccaneers don’t look like a team that will go far so they might look to trade Evans and get some value in return.
Reddit Recap:
Each week we read every Reddit post on r/fantasyfootball and all the comments. We then summarize the most important threads and discussions below.
Preseason Storylines That Most People Are Not Aware Of
Outside of the big name players making a splash in the headlines this preseason, there are some underlying storylines that fantasy managers should be aware of. Here are some team news that aren’t getting a lot mainstream attention:
Adam Thielen appears to be Bryce Young’s favorite target so far during training camp. Some fans are speculating that Thielen will actually have a solid year with his new team.
Daniel Jones has been throwing a lot to Darren Waller this preseason making him look like a decent TE option. Waller has rarely lived up to his hype in past years but this might be the year that he proves he is still a top 5 tight end.
Chiefs are attempting to give Clyde Edwards-Helaire away for anything, and he will probably get cut if they can’t get a return for him. Expect Pacheco and McKinnon to lead their backfield.
Brandon Aiyuk is looking like the 49ers’ new WR1. Aiyuk will be giving Deebo Samuel a run for his money this season.
Elijah Moore is going to get the ball a lot this year on the Browns, he has been looking like one of Deshaun Watson’s favorite targets so far.
Rookie TE Luke Musgrave is looking great so far and should be a viable tight end option this year for fantasy. The Packers appear to be working on a scheme that gets the ball thrown his way quite a bit.
What Teams’ Positions Are You Avoiding This Year
One Redditor asked the community what teams people are avoiding drafting players from and why. This is what the community said:
Indianapolis Colts: With Jonathan Taylor now sitting out for the first 4 games of the year, their offense should be pretty grim to start the season. On top of that, they are starting rookie QB Anthony Richardson who might take a few games to get used to the fast pace of the NFL. There is too much uncertainty right now in Indianapolis to draft one of their offensive players early.
Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray will miss the first 4 games of the season and it looks like the Cardinals are in full tank mode this year. This is unfortunate because players like James Connor and Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown are extremely talented and would’ve had big years but now due to the Cardinals current situation they are looking less reliable.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Now that Tom Brady has left town, don’t expect a lot out of this offense. Baker Mayfield will be leading the way and their offensive line is looking a little thin due to injury. A lot of Redditors are in agreement that they are avoiding drafting any Bucs players in the early rounds. However, players like Godwin, Evans, and White might still have decent years but just be cautious of what round you draft them in.
Do Running Backs Tend To Decline After Having A Season With 375+ Touches
Statistically speaking running backs declined after having a season with 375+ touches. 68% of running backs who meet this criteria produce fewer yards / touchdowns the next year. And 78% of them also average fewer touches the next season. So should you be worried about drafting a RB like that? Not necessarily. Although RBs tend to decline a little after a big year, it's usually due to them regressing to the mean rather than them playing poorly. 50% of running backs who get 375+ touches still finish as a top 8 RB the following year. A guy like Josh Jacobs was so good last year that he is probably going to have a slight regression this year, however you can still expect him to finish as one of the best RBs in the league.
Are The New York Jets Overhyped?
The Jets have been the talk of the town so far this preseason. They have signed Aaron Rodgers, are featured on HBO’s Hard Knocks series, recently added Dalvin Cook, and more. On paper, their team looks very good and seems like they have an elite offense.
But are the Jets too good to be true? Some Redditors think so. One person compared their current hype to that of the Broncos’ post signing QB Russell Wilson. Last year, the Broncos hype was as massive as the disappointment that was their season. Led by head coach Nathaniel Hackett, the Broncos finished the season 5-12. Funny enough, Hackett is now the offensive coordinator of the Jets so some fantasy players are worried he is going to miscall the Jets offense like he did last year. Although there are some similarities between the two teams, the Jets should still have a much better year. Russell Wilson is no Aaron Rodgers so Jets fans should be optimistic.
Running Backs Who Will Not Lose Goal Line Work
Outside of the league’s top backs (McCaffrey, Barkley, Chubb, Henry, etc.) what other RBs don’t have goal line competition? Redditors agreed that these players specifically should see the majority of their team’s goal line work:
Alexander Mattison (Vikings): Now that Dalvin Cook is gone, Mattison is their main running back. He will look to produce similar to how Cook once did.
Cam Akers (Rams): Akers finished last year really strong and doesn’t have any real competition in Los Angeles. He seems like the no brainer red zone rusher for the Rams.
James Conner (Cardinals): Conner is the Cardinals best rusher by a mile. He should continue to lead the team in carries this season and will take majority of the red zone work. The only thing with Conner and the Cardinals is that they have to make it to the red zone first.
Dameon Pierce (Texans): Last year he was one of the league’s last true work horses. Pierce should see just as many attempts this year and will be their main goal line back.
Joe Mixon (Bengals): Mixon is the clear starter for the Bengals and should see plenty of red zone work once again. Last year he scored 5 touchdowns in one game so it's clear that the Bengals will use him if he is close enough to the endzone.
What Does Reddit Think Of WR Michael Thomas This Year
Analysts seem to dislike former star WR Michael Thomas, and rightfully so. He hasn’t had a good season in over 3 years and is constantly dealing with lingering injuries. However, he is tempting to draft at his lower APD, but will he perform like he used to?
Reddit agrees that they wouldn’t be surprised if he had a big season, especially now that the Saints have Derek Carr throwing to him. Thomas has huge upside for his current ADP but also has a bottomless floor given his history of injuries. It should also be mentioned that this is a contract year for him so he should have a chip on his shoulder to play well. Overall most of Reddit agrees that Michael Thomas is a good ‘lotto ticket’ player. Can he be a huge draft steal? Yes absolutely. Will he actually produce though? Only time will tell.
Redditors Predict Which Players That Are Currently Being Doubted Will End Up Winning Leagues
A lot of players are being skipped over in this year's draft because people think they are busts, past their prime, or just no longer relevant fantasy wise - but he season hasn’t even started yet. Redditors predict which players will actually have a good year and perform better than people are expecting. Here is who they said:
Josh Jacobs (Raiders): There was some uncertainty with Jacobs since he was holding out until this week. Now that he is back, he should have another great year fantasy wise.
Najee Harris (Steelers): Last year Harris was primarily drafted in the first round and didn’t really live up to the expectations.He still had a decent year, it just wasn’t the year you’d expect your first round pick to have. Now that the hype around him is dead, people are expecting the worst from him. However, the Steelers offense is expected to be even better this year and Harris should bounce back and be considered a good draft option at his current ADP.
Kenneth Walker (Seahawks): Walker dominated last year when he played but some people are worried about his injury. The Seahawks tend to lean on their starting running back so expect Walker to have another explosive year.
J.K. Dobbins (Ravens): Some people are worried about his injury history and don’t think he can last a full season. When he does play he has big weeks and is a viable fantasy starter. Coming into this year, he looks very healthy and has the potential to be a top running back in the league yet people are still avoiding him due to his injury history. If Dobbins can stay healthy, he will prove a lot of people wrong this year.
Best Kickers To Target This Year
Kickers are often overlooked in fantasy but can make a huge difference in your team’s success. Having a reliable kicker that gets you around 10 points a week can help fill out other holes in your lineup or poor performances that week. Here are the kickers you should be targeting to draft this year:
Justin Tucker (Ravens): Tucker has been the most consistent fantasy kicker over the last couple of seasons and should be the first kicker taken off the draft board once again. The Ravens love using him and give him plenty of long field goal attempts since he has the leg for it.
Brandon McManus (Jaguars): McManus has always been a solid kicker who can make big kicks. Now that he is on an elite offense in Jacksonville, he should see way more kicking attempts than before. The Jaguars also have an easy start to their schedule so we should see McManus used a lot early.
Younghoe Koo (Falcons): With the Falcons addition of Bijan Robinson, they are looking to be offensively focused this year. This would be good news for Koo because he will have prime kicking opportunities like he did in 2020 when he was one of the highest scoring kickers.
Cameron Dicker (Chargers): The Chargers were 5th in red zone attempts last year with a total of 3.7 trips to the red zone a game. Now that their offense is fully healthy again, they should see that many trips once again leaving Dicker with a lot of opportunities to kick.
Jake Elliott (Eagles): The Eagles are an offensive juggernaut and Elliott had plenty of kicking opportunities with them the last couple of years. He should once again see a lot of kicking attempts and make a good amount of them. Elliott made 20/23 field goal attempts last year.
Daniel Carlson (Raiders): Carlson was one the best / highest scoring kickers last season. The Raiders have a new quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo but he should still be able to take them to the red zone giving Carlson plenty of attempts. Carlson also has one of the strongest legs in the league and can consistently make field goals from 60+ yards out.
Justin Fields Is A Must Draft Quarterback
Fields surprised people last year when he balled out and became one of the league's best fantasy QBs to have. He rushed for over 1,100 yards and threw for 2,200. Fields had 25 rushes last year that were over 20+ yards - he really is an elite runner. This year he is also looking to improve his passing game and the Bears now have WR DJ Moore who is a great target for Fields. The Bears also improved their offensive line this offseason so Fields should have more time to throw in the pocket. If Fields can improve his passing game he will become one of the best QBs in the league and put up crazy high fantasy weeks. Fields is already ranked a top 7 QB this year according to most draft rankings so if you can’t get a top 3 QB consider taking Fields whose potential is massive.
Is WR Adam Thielen Being Undervalued?
Veteran receiver Adam Thielen is on a new team for the first time in his career. He is now paired up with the 1st overall pick QB Bryce Young. Thielen is going very late in a lot of people’s drafts and can be a decent pick depending on how late you get him. So far he has been Bryce Young’s favorite target this preseason - it’s not even close. However, Thielen is now 33 years old and struggled last year to get separation on the field. He only broke 1 tackle on 70 catches and had 152 yards after the catch. Thielen may not be what he used to be, but if you are looking for WR depth he is worth looking into. He most likely will have value as a flex or WR3 player if anything. So don’t expect too much from the veteran, but also don’t be surprised if he has some decent weeks here and there.
Injury Updates:
Cooper Kupp Faces Injury Setback And Is Now Day To Day
Rams’ Head coach Sean McVay announced that star WR Cooper Kupp is facing a setback with his hamstring injury and will now be day to day. Coach McVay said they have no set day on when he will return but they will continue to monitor him and see when he is ready. It sounds like the Rams want Kupp to be fully recovered before he comes back. People are now worried that this injury will linger all year and cause Kupp to miss a handful of weeks here and there. If Kupp ends up missing time, expect his targets to go to TE Tyler Higbee or WR Van Jefferson.
George Kittle Dealing With A Lingering Injury And Will Not Practice The Rest Of The Week
TE George Kittle missed practice on Monday and will now hold off on practicing the rest of the week. Coach Kyle Shanahan indicated that Kittle is still feeling the after effects of an unspecified previous injury but should be back at full go by next Monday. Although he is expected to be back shortly, this should be concerning for Kittle owners since he always seems to be dealing with injuries.
Bengals’ QB Joe Burrow Is Back At Practice
Joe Burrow has been out for a month with a calf injury. Thankfully he returned to practice this Wednesday and is ready to get back on the field. This is good news for people who drafted Bengals players – when Burrow is out there he is going to bring everyone up with him.
The Dolphins Have Placed CB Jalen Ramsey & RB Jeff Wilson On Injury Reserve
The Dolphins have placed a handful of players on the IR today. Without CB Jalen Ramsey playing, expect the Miami defense to take a small hit in effectiveness. The Dolphins also placed RB Jeff Wilson on IR making Raheem Mostert their new starting running back for some time. Mostert should be a solid RB2 option while he plays, and is something worth targeting if you need RB depth.
Commanders WR Terry McLaurin Not Seen At Practice Thursday
A reporter for the Commanders noticed that Terry McLaurin wasn’t at practice this Thursday. McLaurin has been seen in a walking boot so the Commanders are going to be pretty cautious with how soon they will let him suit up. There is a chance they sit him week 1 and then aim to have him play the following week. The Commanders will face the Cardinals first which should be a fairly easy matchup for them. Washington probably won’t need McLaurin that game so don’t be surprised if he sits out. If he does, expect WR Jahan Dotson to have a big game week 1 and have more opportunities in the passing game.