Bi-Weekly Fantasy Football Recap - Tuesday 9/05
TLDR:
Don’t have time to read the entire newsletter? Check out the bullet points below for a quick recap of everything going on this week.
Main Recaps:
Cooper Kupp flies to Minnesota to meet with body specialist, now questionable to play week 1
Lions’ offensive coordinator says they will use rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs in more ways than people originally thought
Davante Adams, Khalil Herbert, D’andre Swift, and Miles Sanders can all outperform their current ADP
Reddit thinks Jahan Dotson, Skyy Moore, and Chris Olave are slightly over hyped for where they are being drafted
Target someone else’s running back handcuff in the first half of the year
QB Kyler Murray might sit out longer than we originally thought
RBs like Tyler Allegeier, Jaylen Warren, Samaje Perine, and more all have standalone value as their teams’ backup
Last year wide receivers outscored running backs, however finding a reliable running back was much harder to come by
There is a reason why Joe Mixon isn’t being drafted higher
Chiefs WR Kadarius Toney should be good to go by Thursday night’s season opener
Wide receivers Rashod Bateman, Tyler Lockett, Adam Thielen, and Courtland Sutton have the most to lose this year if the rookies on their team go off
Falcons’ reporters are not sold on TE Kyle Pitts this year
Colts work out RB James Robinson
David Montgomery will probably not have a season like Jamaal Williams did last year, but will still have a great year
Juju Smith-Schuster’s knee is reportedly a ‘mess’
RB Breece Hall misses practice Monday but head coach Robert Saleh says not to worry
Jerry Jeudy back at practice on Monday
*Read the full breakdown of everything below!
Breaking Player News:
Falcons’ Beat Writers Are All Out On TE Kyle Pitts
Kyle Pitts is coming off a 28 catch, 356 yard, two touchdown season that ended in the 10th game last year due to a MCL tear. Atlanta beat writers are out on Kyle Pitts this year in terms of fantasy. They are predicting him to be 4th on the team in targets and will serve more as a run blocker for new rookie RB Bijan Robinson. Many fantasy managers disagree with their opinion of Pitts this year and think he has the potential to be the 2nd most targeted player on the team behind Drake London.
It should also be noted that last year Marcus Mariota was throwing to him and missed a lot of those throws, making Pitts’ stats look bad. Now that the Falcons are starting QB Desmond Ridder, maybe things will be different for Pitts this year. Regardless, Pitts needs to prove he is fully healthy again since we haven’t seen him post MCL tear. As long as you aren’t drafting him with a top 50 pick, you should be fine with wherever else you get him.
Colts Have Work Out With Free Agent RB James Robinson
After being released from the Giants last week, RB James Robinson worked out with the Colts this Monday. Now that Taylor is out for a few weeks, Indianapolis might bring in another running back to start the year. It is still unsure if it will be Robinson or not but most fantasy managers are still rooting for his success regardless of where he ends up.
Breaking Team News:
Lions’ Offensive Coordinator Says They Will Use Rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs In Ways People Might Not Expect
Lions OC Ben Johnson mentioned that they “might use Gibbs in some ways that people don’t quite think we might”. Although there is no official word on how they will plan to use him, people are speculating Gibbs will be heavily involved in the Lions’ passing game and maybe even see some opportunities on their kick / punt return team.
To Avoid Paying Injury Guarantees, The Cardinals Might Keep QB Kyler Murray On The PUP List Throughout The 2023 Season
The Cardinals would owe QB Kyler Murray $37M in 2024, $29M in 2025, and $26M in 2026 in injury guarantees if he can’t pass a physical before March. There are some rumors that the Cardinals will keep Murray on the PUP (physically unable to perform) list throughout the 2023 season to avoid him getting hurt again which would prevent him from passing that physical.
If the Cardinals think they will pick high in the 2024 draft we might see them move on from Murray and draft a new QB. If they do keep Murray out, this will be a big hit to any players on the Cardinals offense. Without Murray starting, players like James Connor, Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown, and Zach Ertz would all take a big hit to their production. If Murray does end up sitting out longer than expected, picking up the defense playing the Cardinals each week would be a good fantasy move.
Reddit Recap:
Each week we read every Reddit post on r/fantasyfootball and all the comments. We then summarize the most important threads and discussions below.
Should You Get The Handcuff Of Your RB1?
If you drafted a star running back with your first couple of picks, should you also draft their backup in case your starter goes down? Although it’s not the worst idea, most people would advise against this. The logic is simple - if you have your own handcuff you have a ceiling of 1 starting running back. However, if you roster someone else’s handcuff instead, you now have a ceiling of 2 possible starting running backs. Drafting your own running back’s handcuff is considered a safe floor play.
That said, this logic makes the most sense early into the season. During the first half of the year, you generally want to be taking high upside risks that can give your team an advantage in getting to a higher playoff seed. You do this by taking other people’s RB handcuffs (either to strengthen your own roster or acquire future trade value assets). However, once you have a playoff spot locked up, you now want to protect your own roster. Towards the end of the year you should switch to handcuffing your own picks in case your best players go down with injuries.
Which Wide Receivers Would Take The Biggest Hit To Their Production If Their Team’s Rookies Take Off
There are already a lot of rookie wide receivers getting attention and impressing people in the preseason. If they can actually live up to their hype, which teammates of theirs will be in danger of losing targets? Here is who Reddit thinks might lose targets to rookies this year:
Rashod Bateman losing targets to Zay Flowers (Ravens)
Tyler Lockett losing targets to Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks)
Adam Thielen losing targets to Jonathan Mingo (Panthers)
Courtland Sutton losing targets to Mavin Mims (Broncos)
Is It Better To Draft More Running Backs Or Wide Receivers
One Redditor asked the community if they prefer drafting extra RBs or WRs for their flex spot. The answers were a little split but here is what people said about why they favor one position over the other.
Wide Receivers:
Last year, an average top 30 WR scored more than an average top 30 RB by 2 points.
Most running backs these days are in split backfields and not getting as many touches as they once did. A star WR will always see a lot of action.
WRs are more likely to break out and have a big game over a RB
Running Backs:
It’s harder to find a RB on the weekly waivers than it is a reliable WR so some recommend taking a RB
Running backs make better trade bait a couple weeks into the season
More WRs get injured than RBs each season
One other thing to keep in mind is that last year there were 22 WRs who had 1,000+ yards while only 16 RBs surpassed 1,000 yards. The main takeaway is that wide receivers tend to make a better flex play, however loading up on running backs might be more valuable since finding a reliable one is harder to do.
Running Backs That Have Standalone Value As Handcuffs
The league has few workhorse running backs that can take the majority of touches themselves. A lot of teams use a running back by committee approach and now utilize multiple RBs. In the past you’d have to wait for the starting RB to get injured and then hope their backup was just as good. Now that we see more of a RBBC approach, we get to see backup RBs play more without their starter needing to go down. Here is a list of running backs that have stand alone value even just as the team's backup.
Tyler Allgeier (Falcons): Atlanta just drafted a stud RB in Bijan Robinson this year and he will be used in Arthur Smith’s offense a lot. That being said, Allgeier rushed for over 1,000 yards as a rookie while sharing the backfield so expect him to have some kind of role again this year. Allgeier could provide sufficient fantasy points on a week you need someone to fill for a bye player. If Robinson was ever to miss time, Allgeier would have immediate RB2 upside given the volume of rush attempts in this offense.
Jaylen Warren (Steelers): Warren has been creeping into Najee Harris’ usage share, particularly on passing downs. Warren also has a certain explosiveness and looked very good in the attempts he has been given. He should see a bigger workload this year and will help the Steelers offense when Najee is not on the field.
Zach Charbonnet (Seahawks): He was drafted in the early 2nd round this year and possesses the skills to be a 3-down running back. Although he will be behind starter Kenneth Walker, expect Charbonnet to make the most out of any playing time he gets. Charbonnet has a way of creatively getting himself into the open field and also has passing down expertise.
Samaje Perine (Broncos): Last year, Perine was incredible at filling in for Joe Mixon in Cincinnati while he was out. Now that he is on the Broncos, Perine should get even more attempts as he has a well-rounded skill set and can clearly handle a full workload. He will start the year behind RB Javonte Williams but Williams is still recovering from his injury himself so expect Perine to get worked into his new offense early.
Ezekial Elliott (Patriots): Zeke still has some gas left in his tank and should see some good opportunities this year in New England. He should serve more as a complementary back to their starter Stevenson. However, don’t be surprised if Elliot gets a good amount of the Patriots goal line touches this year.
Elijah Mitchell (49ers): The Niners have already indicated that they plan to rest Christian McCaffrey more than he’s been rested in the past in an effort to keep him healthy all season. Elijah Mitchell is arguably a RB1 talent when he can stay healthy , so expect him to have some opportunities to score fantasy points for you.
Players Who Can Outperform Their ADP
A lot of players had a lower ADP than expected and fantasy players let some good names slip in the draft. Below are players who are more skilled than their ADP made them seem.
Davante Adams (Raiders): Adams seems to be getting drafted in the second round and his ADP has him as the 8th best receiver. However, Adams is a perennial top 5 WR and should ball out no matter who is throwing to him. He had a big year last season and should still perform well even with Jimmy Garoppolo throwing to him.
Khalil Herbert (Bears): Herbert is typically being taken with the 88th pick in drafts which is surprising considering he is a starting running back with no real competition yet. The Bears can’t let Fields run like he did last year or he won’t last all season. Expect Herbert to take some of the load of his shoulders.
D’Andre Swift (Eagles): Swift disappointed fantasy players last year but he is on a new team now who has one of the most explosive offenses in the league. Swift is typically being drafted around pick 70 which is fairly low for the starting RB on a top 5 offense.
Miles Sanders (Panthers): Sanders’ ADP is 49th overall and that is not bad for a starting running back on a team whose pass game is not that developed yet. Sanders got a large contract from the Panther’s in the offseason so they obviously have high expectations for him. He should see plenty of action this year.
Will David Montgomery Be This Year’s Jamaal Williams?
Last year Jamaal Williams was the Lions’ backup RB and still led the league in rushing touchdowns with a total of 17 TDs. Now that Williams and Swift are out of Detroit, the Lions now have rookie Jahmyr Gibbs (alleged starter) and David Montgomery (alleged backup). Fantasy managers are questioning whether Montgomery will have a great year like Williams did. The speculation around the league is that Montgomery will get most of Detroit’s goal line work and Gibbs will get the rest.
So will Montgomery be this year’s Jamaal Williams? Probably not - but he will still have a great year. Last year Jamaal Williams had a record amount of touches within the 3 yard line. He was a byproduct of luck more than anything. Can Montgomery do that? Sure, but it would take another record amount of touches within the 3 yard line to make this happen. Last year, the Detroit receivers were unlucky and seemed to go down right before the goal line often. This year they are aiming to break into the endzone more. Regardless, Montgomery should still have a great year because he will be behind the fantastic offensive line that Detroit has.
Redditors Share Who They Think Others Are Overhyping
There's been a lot of names thrown around the last couple of weeks as this year's “next big thing”. Going into each season, player hype is one thing that is constantly being discussed around the community and this year some names were hyped more than others. Here is who Reddit thinks is getting too much hype so far:
Jahan Dotson (Commanders): Dotson had some good weeks last year and people are now favoring him because of that and Terry McLaurin’s lingering injury status. The reality is the Commanders have a new QB this year with Sam Howell, and there is still uncertainty of how this offense will perform. Dotson has looked good in preseason which is why he’s been getting the hype but now all this hype is getting him drafted a little earlier than he should be going.
Skyy Moore (Chiefs): Every year there is a Chiefs’ wide receiver who everyone thinks is going to be the next Tyreek. This year people are thinking Skyy Moore can be the Chiefs WR1 but usually it never pans out like that. Mahomes still favors throwing to Kelce and when he is not throwing to him he spreads the ball out to multiple receivers not just one guy.
Chris Olave (Saints): Don’t get it wrong, Olave had a fantastic rookie year last season and should take another step forward this season. However, some people are expecting him to have a Justin Jefferson like season. Olave should be going around pick 25 in the draft but some people are reaching for him higher than that which is concerning others.
Why Is Joe Mixon Being Drafted Lower Than Usual?
Joe Mixon is currently being taken around round 3 which has some people wondering why he is not going earlier. The Bengals have improved their offensive line this offseason, RB Samaje Perine is now out of the picture, and the Bengals have one of the highest octane offenses in the league. So why is Mixon being drafted lower than usual?
For starters, he scored 25% of his total fantasy points in one single game last year and outside of that was an average RB level guy the rest of the year. Outside of his anomaly game where he scored 51 points, Mixon only averaged 9.1 fantasy points a game last season. That is not bad for a RB but it explains why people are not drafting him in the first two rounds. Mixon also gets a lot of touches but doesn’t do much with it. He is fairly inefficient and the Bengals are also a pass-first team so Mixon is not seen as an elite back.
Injury Updates:
WR Cooper Kupp Flies To Minnesota To Meet With Body Specialist Regarding His Hamstring Injury. Kupp Is Now Questionable To Play Week 1
Cooper Kupp has aggravated his hamstring twice in the past year and is still dealing with this injury. Kupp flew out to Minnesota this week to meet with a body specialist to get a better understanding of his injury and learn the root of the issue. Coach Sean McVay listed Kupp as “day-to-day” but it’s looking more like the star WR will miss week 1. Kupp owners are not feeling good about his status and are worried his injury will linger all season.
Chiefs’ WR Kadarius Toney Is “Good To Go” For Thursday Night Vs. Lions
Kadarius Toney has been listed as “day by day” this week but it now looks like he will be ready for the season opener against the Detroit Lions. Toney has missed much of camp with a lingering knee injury but is now expected to play. He is considered a popular breakout candidate this year so he will be a player worth watching this Thursday night.
Patriots WR Juju Smith Schuster’s Knee Reportedly ‘Could Explode At Any Point’ And Is A ‘Mess’
One reporter said that Juju Smith Schuster’s knee is a mess and can allegedly explode at any point. Contrary to what the reporter said, Smith-Schuster reported that his knee was getting stronger but now people don’t know who to believe. Some people think Smith-Schuster is downplaying his injury while others think the reporter is exaggerating his claims. Either way, this will be a story to follow in the next couple weeks.
Jets’ Coach Robert Saleh Tells Reporters RB Breece Hall Will Not Practice Monday And That It’s Merely A Maintenance Day
RB Breece Hall did not practice on Monday and head coach Robert Saleh said it was just a maintenance day for the running back. Hall is coming back after tearing his ACL last season and this news now has Hall owners worried. Supposedly he was fully recovered now so taking a day off from practice has some people concerned that he is not fully ready yet. Both Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook are expected to play this Sunday, however it is looking like Cook might get more use than originally thought.
Jerry Jeudy Was Back At Broncos Practice This Monday
Jeudy suffered a hamstring injury at practice in late August and there was no official word on when he would return. The Broncos clarified that Jeudy will not start the season on the PUP list or IR so he might play week 1. However, as of right now he is still listed as questionable. This Monday Jeudy took a step in the right direction and returned to practice and was seen stretching with the team.
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