Bi-Weekly Fantasy Football Recap - Saturday 9/09
TLDR:
Don’t have time to read the entire newsletter? Check out the bullet points below for a quick recap of everything and quick links directly to what you’re looking for.
Breaking Player News:
Breaking Team News:
Browns Plan To Use WR Elijah Moore In The Slot And Backfield
Lions’ David Montgomery Out Snaps Jahmyr Gibbs In Season Opener
Reddit Recap:
Injury Report:
*Read the full breakdown of everything below!
Breaking Player News:
Travis Kelce Sits Out In Season Opener
Star TE Travis Kelce sits out in Thursday night’s game. It will be the first game in his career that he has missed due to injury since 2013. Without Kelce, the Chiefs offense looked lost and backup tight end Noah Gray only saw 5 targets catching 3 of them for 31 total yards. Kelce should be back next week so expect Mahomes to get the ball to him more so than any receiver in their first game.
Joe Burrow Agrees To $275 Million Extension Making Him Highest-Paid Player In NFL History
QB Joe Burrow has reached a record agreement with the Bengals on a 5-year, $275 million extension. This deal now makes him the highest-paid player in NFL history. The Bengals elite offense runs through Burrow so this extension is great for Cincinnati and football fans everywhere. Burrow is expected to have a big fantasy year and now that he has a new massive contract, expect him to show everyone why he is worth that much. One other thing to note regarding this deal, it’s so large that the Bengals will probably have to move on from other big name players like Tee Higgins next year due to cap space. However, that is a next season issue and won’t impact either one of their fantasy performances this season.
Kadarius Toney And Skyy Moore Disappoint In Chiefs’ Opener
All preseason fantasy managers were trying to figure out who the Chiefs WR1 will be. There was a lot of hype around Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore and people were taking them higher than they should’ve been drafted. In Thursday night’s season opener, both Toney and Moore disappointed everyone who owned them. They combined for just 4 total yards and only saw a combined 10 targets. Both of the Chiefs’ receivers also had big drops during the game that impacted the game’s final outcome. After Thursday’s performance, both receivers should be riding the bench on your fantasy team until we see more from them. They did so bad that you can even argue they are both droppable already, however it’s worth giving them another week to see if they can turn things around. Either way, Thursday’s season opener further confirms that the Chiefs offense takes a huge hit without Travis Kelce and once he is back expect most of the targets to go back his way.
RB Jahmyr Gibbs Will Have Higher Usage Going Forward
After having an impressive Thursday night game, Lions’ head coach says rookie Jahmyr Gibbs will get more usage moving forward. Dan Campbell said that Gibbs’ low snap count against the Chiefs was by design and that he wanted to get him a glimpse of what the game looked like before unleashing him. Gibbs looked phenomenal in the season opener and finished the night as the highest-graded RB with a score of 78.8. Although he was out-touched by RB David Montgomery, Gibbs was electric when he had the ball and impressed a lot of people. He had 6 broken tackles on just 7 carries and also had a YAC (yards after contact) average of 4.86 yards. Gibbs fantasy owners have to be feeling good about having him – once he gets more touches expect him to have huge weeks.
Breaking Team News:
Buccaneers’ Offensive Coordinator Shares More Insight About How They Will Use All Their Running Backs
Bucs’ offensive coordinator Dave Canales shared his honest evaluation of their RB room this Tuesday. He said that they have one “really fantastic” running back and then a bunch of other good backs. The one really fantastic running back he was talking about is Rachaad White. This is good news for White owners because it sounds like he will be their clear favorite option. Canales also mentioned that they will use multiple running backs in order to keep fresh legs on the field, however White will still be the primary back in their timeshare. Rookie RB Sean Tucker sounds like he will be more of an early-down back for them and less likely to play in passing downs.
Eagles List All 4 Of Their Running Backs As Starters
In surprising yet not that surprising news, the Eagles did not pick a single RB as their starter this year but instead listed all 4 RBs on their roster as the starter. Philadelphia picked up RB D’Andre Swift in the offseason and he was expected to be their main guy. However, this news makes it seem like they will use all 4 running backs fairly equally and Swift might take a hit fantasy wise. The Eagles backfield will be a little messy splitting between those 4 running backs, but they also have an elite runner with QB Jalen Hurts so this might get complicated for fantasy owners who picked an Eagles RB. This move by the Eagles is great for real football but terrible for fantasy.
49ers And Nick Bosa Agree To Massive Contract Extension
The 49ers announced that they have agreed to a five-year, $170 million extension with defensive end Nick Bosa. This extension will now make him the highest-paid defensive player in NFL history. Nick Bosa is a key part of San Francisco's elite defense so now that he is secured once again, expect their defense to have a big year. They are the #1 ranked defense going into the season so the expectations are high.
Browns Plan To Use WR Elijah Moore In The Slot And Backfield
Elijah Moore joined the Browns in the off season and the team is already liking what they are seeing from the young receiver. The Browns said they plan to use him in the slot as well as the backfield which is a little surprising to some people. One thing to point out is that Deshaun Watson’s slot receivers historically have averaged a top 30 fantasy finish each year. Will Moore follow suit? It’s too early to say, but Moore could very well be a sneaky flex option and might end up like a discounted version of Deebo Samuel.
Lions’ David Montgomery Out Snaps Jahmyr Gibbs In Season Opener
In Thursday night’s season opener, the Lions beat the Chiefs and looked good out on the field. One surprise to some fantasy managers was that RB David Montgomery out-touched rookie Jahmyr Gibbs by a large majority. Montgomery was in for 54 snaps (77% of plays) while Gibbs was only in for 19 snaps (27% of plays). Both running backs looked good and owners of either shouldn’t worry. Gibbs will get worked into the offense more as the season goes on and both should be viable fantasy starters.
Reddit Recap:
Each week we read every Reddit post on r/fantasyfootball and all the comments. We then summarize the most important threads and discussions below.
Top 10 Defenses To Stream For Just Week 1
With the season starting soon, here is a list of defenses to target for just week 1 (bold = team to start). These teams have favorable matchups:
Commanders vs. Cardinals: 11.5 points (Projection) - Taken in 45% of leagues
Ravens vs. Texans: 9.5 points (Projection) - Taken in 66% of leagues
49ers vs. Steelers: 8.9 points (Projection) - Taken in 100% of leagues
Vikings vs. Buccaneers: 8.7 points (Projection) - Taken in 4% of leagues
Falcons vs. Panthers: 8.3 points (Projection) - Taken in 5% of leagues
Broncos vs. Raiders: 8.1 points (Projection) - Taken in 7% of leagues
Saints vs. Titans: 7.9 points (Projection) - Taken in 92% of leagues
Bengals vs. Browns: 7.7 points (Projection) - Taken in 29% of leagues
Jaguars vs. Colts: 7.6 points (Projection) - Taken in 15% of leagues
Bills vs. Jets: 7.0 points (Projection) - Taken in 97% of leagues
Coaching Changes You Should Be Aware Of
During the offseason a lot of coaches moved around and now have fresh starts on new teams. New coaching means new game plans and this can drastically impact a player’s performance for better or worse. These are the biggest coaching changes you should be aware about going into the season:
Ravens: Hired a new offensive coordinator (Todd Monken) who looks to be favoring a very air raid offense. Expect way more passing from Lamar Jackson and less running from the star QB.
Chargers: They now have a new offensive coordinator (Kellen Moore) who will aim to explore Herbert’s deep passing game. The Chargers are less likely to do quick dump offs to Ekeler and more likely to either throw it deep or run him into the ground.
Buccaneers: Hired a new running back coach (Skip Peete). Peete has an impressive resume and guided Todd Gurley during his elite seasons in LA as well as developed both RBs Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard while in Dallas the last two years. The Bucs running game should see an increase in production.
Colts: Hired new head coach (Shane Steichen). Steichen helped develop Jalen Hurts into an all-pro dual-threat QB while in Philadelphia. He also was the offensive coordinator during Justin’s Herbert’s fantastic rookie campaign. Colt’s rookie QB Anthony Richardson will be in good hands this year and can possibly become a viable dual-threat fantasy QB.
Reddit Makes Their Bold Week 1 Predictions
Week 1 is coming right up and people are eager for the season to start. So many players were hyped going into this season and something crazy is bound to happen week 1. In a thread, Redditors share their predictions of what will happen week 1, these are the top predictions:
WR Dionte Johnson will break his curse from last season and actually score a TD
QB Anthony Richardson runs for 100 yards
WR Christian Kirk outperforms Calvin Ridley
The Jets defense will embarrass the Bills and end up with 2 interceptions, a fumble, and TD
The Lions upset the Chiefs in the first game of the year
QB Justin Fields throws for over 250 passing yards
TE Juwan Johnson finishes the week as a top 5 tight end
RB David Montgomery will be this weeks’ highest scoring running back
Friendly Reminder: Do Not Overreact To Week 1
You obviously would love to see your team do well right off the bat, however if any of your star players have a slow week 1 DO NOT PANIC. The single biggest mistake you can make is to drop or trade one of your stars who had a bad first week of the season. If you look at the top 10 RBs in week 1 of 2022, only one of them actually finished the season as a top 10 running back (Saquon Barkley). The rest of them fell off at some point. If you look at who finished the year as a top 10 RB overall, only 4 of them had a week 1 performance of 10+ points or more. The moral of the story is don’t panic and ride it out.
Week 1 means little in the grand scheme of things so don’t overreact and make any big moves after one game. Do not assume your high draft pick with one bad week is bad. Do not assume that your "sleeper" with one good week is actually good. A lot can change over the course of a season. However, at the same time don't under-react in regards to some of your bench / later round players! The best waiver wire pickups usually come from the first couple weeks of the season so be ready to swap.
Is It Better To Have The WR1 On A Bad Team Or WR2 On A Good Team?
One Redditor asked if it was better to draft a WR1 on a bad team or a WR2 on a good team. In the past, most people would argue in favor of taking the WR1 on a bad team since they will get the majority of the targets. However, recently we have seen a shift in the NFL where WR2s are now getting a lot of work too. An example: would you rather have WR Marquise Brown who is the Cardinals main receiver or Jaylen Waddle who is the Dolphins second pass option behind Tyreek Hill? Most people would agree that taking Waddle is the better option here. It doesn’t matter if you have the best receiver on a bad team, if the team can’t move the ball down the field or convert big third downs then you’re going to have a disappointing fantasy season from that WR1. WR2s like Jaylen Waddle, Tee Higgins, and DeVonta Smith are definitely better fantasy options than a WR1 on a bad team.
Thursday Night Football Post Game Reactions
The Lions beat the Chiefs 21-20 this Thursday night in the first game of the season. The game had a lot of ups and downs for both teams and we were able to get an idea of which players will be fantasy relevant this season. Here are the post game reactions from Thursday night’s game:
The Chiefs’ wide receivers (Toney & Moore specifically) had one of the worst performances a receiving group has had. They did not help Patrick Mahomes at all and had close to 8 dropped catches combined.
Kelce owners have to be feeling pretty good after seeing how lost the Chiefs were without him. He should see a lot of targets once he is back.
Jahmyr Gibbs is so quick and will have some big plays through the season. The Lions design plays to get him open and find holes so expect him to have some long runs.
Rookie TE Sam LaPorta looked very good in his first NFL game and might be a viable tight end option
David Montgomery also looked good and is not going away anytime soon. He will continue to see a lot of work for the Lions and is a good flex option.
RB Isiah Pacheco looked terrific as a pass catching back, however they didn’t get him the ball as much as they should have. If they get him the ball more, expect him to make the most of any opportunity.
Patrick Mahomes is still fantastic and didn’t lose a step in his game. He just didn’t get any support from his receivers, but once Kelce is back expect more production from the star QB.
Best Deep Stashes For Later In The Season
Although week 1 has barely kicked off, some managers are already looking for which player to stash early. These are the players that Reddit is stashing early with hopes they become this year’s sleeper picks:
WR Jonathan Mingo (Panthers)
RB Sean Tucker (Buccaneers)
WR Isiah Hodgins (Giants)
WR Donovan People Jones (Browns)
RB Tyjae Spears (Titans)
WR Jayden Reed (Packers)
Reddit Shares Their Gut Feelings On Players
Having success in fantasy football is primarily luck but a small percentage of it is trusting your gut. Here are some gut feelings Reddit has regarding certain players both good and bad:
WR Davante Adams will continue to put up WR1 numbers even with Jimmy Garoppolo throwing to him
TE Darren Waller will finish as a top 5 tight end
WR Calvin Ridley is legit and will actually live up to his hype
WR Jordan Addison will be a solid WR2 option
RB Jahmyr Gibbs will live up to his hype
WR Chris Olave will be a top 5 receiver now that Derek Carr is throwing to him
WR Devonta Smith with be the best wide receiver in Philadelphia
QB Justin Herbert is going to ball out and be a top 3 MVP candidate
Injury Updates:
Cooper Kupp Ruled Out For Week 1 And Now May Be Put On IR
With the season opener just upon us, unfortunately the Rams reported that star WR Cooper Kupp will not play this Sunday. Head coach Sean McVay also said that he would not rule out placing Cooper Kupp on the injured reserve list. This is not what Kupp fantasy managers want to hear but if he goes to IR it is probably for the better. He can use those extra weeks to fully recover so he can play deeper into the season. If Kupp does end up going to the IR, expect TE Tyler Higbee and WR Van Jefferson to be big factors in the Rams’ passing game.
Commanders Remove WR Terry McLaurin Off Injury Report
The Commanders announced Friday that WR Terry McLaurin is being taken off the injury report and will be good to go Sunday vs. The Cardinals. This is great news for all McLaurin owners – he has a favorable matchup against Arizona and is expected to pick up right where he left off. This is also good news for all Jahan Dotson owners because now all the coverage won’t be just on him.
TE George Kittle Is Questionable For Sunday’s Game
George Kittle is officially listed as questionable and it is unclear if he’ll play week 1. Kittle is dealing with a groin injury and fantasy managers should monitor his status throughout the weekend. He logged limited practices this week so it's possible he plays. But, given his injury history, a backup option should be rostered just in case.
TE Darren Waller Is Now Questionable For Sunday’s Game
TE Darren Waller is now questionable for week 1. Waller is dealing with a hamstring injury and it looks like his status for Sunday will be a game time decision. This is not ideal for Waller owners as he has a history with injuries. This was supposed to be his come back season and people have had high expectations for him all preseason. Keep your fingers crossed that he can play Sunday.
RB Kenneth Walker III No Longer On Injury Report And Will Start Sunday
After showing up as limited on the injury report Thursday, Kenneth Walker III is looking good to go this Sunday. He was taken off the injury report this Friday and should start for the Seahawks week 1. Any fantasy manager who owns him should start him week 1 against the Los Angeles Rams.
WR Christian Watson Is Out Week 1
Packers WR Christian Watson is officially ruled out for week 1 against the Bears. Watson is dealing with a hamstring injury and will not be available to play this Sunday. This news is not ideal for any Watson owners – Packers head coach Matt LeFleur also said this injury will be a week to week thing. With Watson sitting out week 1, don’t be surprised if the Green Bay offense runs through RB Aaron Jones or even rookie TE Luke Musgrave.
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