Bi-Weekly Fantasy Football Recap - Saturday 9/16
TLDR:
Don’t have time to read the entire newsletter? Check out the bullet points below for a quick recap of everything going on this week.
Player News:
RB Rachaad White Records -38 Rush Yards Over Expectation In Bucs First Game
Austin Ekeler Himself Says To Pick Up His Backup RB Joshua Kelley
Team News:
Bills HC Says They Need A Strong No. 2 Wide Receiver Option Alongside Stefon Diggs
Rams’ OC Believes That RB Kyren Williams Is Just Getting Started
Reddit Recap:
Injury Report:
The Entire Patriots’ Offensive Line Is Injured…Every Single One Of Them
TE Darren Waller Still Dealing With Hamstring Injury That Could Linger All Year
*Read the full breakdown of everything below!
Player News:
RB Rachaad White Records -38 Rush Yards Over Expectation In Bucs First Game
RB Rachaad White had 17 carries for 39 yards in the Buccaneers’ season opener. It’s also worth noting that White had -38 RYOE (rushing yards over expected) which means that based on the positioning and movement of all the other players at the same time of his handoffs, he should have gotten 77 yards on the day but instead only ended with 39 yards. This is not ideal for White owners, however with the volume he’s getting expect him to bounce back. The Buccaneers play the Chicago Bears this week who have one of the worst defenses in the league so that will give us a better idea of if White’s first game was a fluke or not.
Austin Ekeler Himself Says To Pick Up His Backup RB Joshua Kelley
During a podcast interview, Chargers RB Austin Ekeler praised his backup Joshua Kelley and said that all fantasy managers should pick him up immediately. Ekeler said that Kelley does a great job filling in for him when he needs a break and has the talent to have standalone fantasy value similar to Kareem Hunt with the Browns (behind Nick Chubb). The Chargers have a great offensive line which leads to great opportunities for their running backs regardless of who is taking the ball. In week 1, Joshua Kelley had 16 carries for 91 yards and a TD. If Kelley is still available in your league you should seriously consider picking him up asap.
RB D’Andre Swift Has A Career High Game Thursday Night
In Thursday night’s game, Eagles’ RB D’Andre Swift had a career performance and ran for 175 yards on 28 carries. He also managed to get into the endzone for his first Eagles TD of the season. Swift recorded the 8th-highest running success rate (64.3%) by any player with 25+ carries in a game since 2016. He also ran for +41 yards over expected. Swift looked explosive out there and also had two goal line carries stolen by QB Jalen Hurts. If he were to get those carries instead, we would have seen him score in the high 30s fantasy points wise.
Team News:
Jets Reaching Out To Veteran Free Agent QBs
There are rumors that the Jets have been reaching out to free agent quarterbacks now that Aaron Rodgers is out for the season. Head coach Robert Saleh said that although they will look for a veteran to fill the room, under no circumstance will this create a competition for QB Zach Wilson. Saleh went on to say how this is now Wilson’s team and how he will be the guy they roll with moving forward. This doesn’t mean they will stick with him all year though, as he obviously needs to play well to maintain his spot as the starter. Either way WR Garrett Wilson should see a decrease in production now that Rodgers is not the one throwing to him.
Bills HC Says They Need A Strong No. 2 Wide Receiver Option Alongside Stefon Diggs
After having a fantastic 2022 season, WR Christian Kirk only played in 60% of the team’s snaps week 1 and seemed to be more of a slot receiver than an outside one. Calvin Ridley was targeted 11 times, Zay Jones 7 times, and Kirk just 3 times. Obviously it’s only week 1 and a lot can change but this is a little discouraging for Kirk fantasy owners. It is important to remember that the Jaguars signed him to a massive contract so they will most likely get their money's worth and use Kirk more often moving forward. Regardless, he should stay on your bench for now until we see him get more targets.
Rams’ OC Believes That RB Kyren Williams Is Just Getting Started
In an interview with reporters, Rams’ OC Mike LaFleur said “there’s nothing Kyren can’t do in terms of production, pass game, and run game. So I believe he’s just getting started with where he’s at”. In week 1, Williams had 15 carries for 52 yards and 2 TDs. He looked like the better Rams RB over Cam Akers. People now believe he will be their main RB moving forward and with the Rams dealing with a handful of offensive injuries, Williams should have more opportunities in week 2.
Multiple Team Sources Believe WR Juju Smith-Schuster Is Not Among The Patriots’ Most Effective Pass Catchers
It has come out that multiple team sources believe that WR Juju Smith-Schuster is not presently among the Patriots’ five most effective pass-catchers. Over his entire career, Smith-Schuster has successfully caught 69% of balls thrown his way, which is not bad, but that still doesn’t translate to big fantasy weeks. Since 2020, Juju has only scored 10+ fantasy points in 11 out of his last 38 games played. He is no longer the reliable fantasy WR he once was back in 2017 and 2018. A handful of fantasy managers are dropping Smith-Schuster (-8% dropped this week) for the Patriots other WR Kendrick Bourne (+36% added this week). Bourne ran 20% more routes than any other Patriots WR in week 1 and led their team with 11 targets.
Breece Hall To Remain On A Carry Count
RB Breece Hall will remain on a carry count according to Jets’ head coach Robert Saleh. Breece Hall had 10 carries for 127 yards last week which is more yards than you can ask for given his amount of touches. As long as the Jets keep increasing his carry count moving forward there is nothing to worry about as a Hall owner.
Reddit Recap:
Each week we read every Reddit post on r/fantasyfootball and all the comments. We then summarize the most important threads and discussions below.
Was Week 1 One Of The Worst Weeks Of Offensive Football To Start The Season?
Outside of one or two games, it felt like almost every game this past week was defined by defenses. This led to a boring fantasy week and a lot of people panicking over certain players’ lack of production. This is not just your typical “week 1 is always bad” argument, it was actually one of the worst opening weeks in over a decade. If you look at every opening week in the NFL since 2001, this years offenses had the 3rd lowest success rate in the past 20+ years. This year the league also averaged the lowest EPA/play (expected points added) in week 1. If you even just compare this year’s season opener to last years this is what it looks like:
2022 week 1 total yards: 11,177 2022 week 1 total points scored: 673
2023 week 1 total yards: 9,576 2023 week 1 total points scored: 656
As you can see there was a big drop off in yards compared to last year. Another big factor in why there were poor week 1 performances could be attributed to this week’s weather. A lot of games were played in bad weather conditions like rain which created slippery playing surfaces.
Reddit Thread
Main Takeaways From Each Game
These are the biggest takeaways that people saw after watching each game in week 1:
Lions vs. Chiefs:
Sam LaPorta is about to feast this season and be a viable TE to start
Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney looked horrible out there with a handful of dropped catches each
Once Travis Kelce is back, Mahomes is going to run their offense through him once again
Rookie Jahmyr Gibbs looked explosive and is going to take over their backfield
Bengals vs. Browns:
Elijah Moore looked good enough to pick up, he tied the team with most targets and had some carries
Nick Chubb is still elite
The Bengals looked bad but they will bounce back, don’t panic sell any of their players
Deshaun Watson looks like he will be a solid fantasy starter once again
Texans vs. Ravens:
Zay Flowers is legit
Lamar Jackson looked rusty
Nico Collins is a viable fantasy receiver to own
Buccaneers vs. Vikings:
Jordan Addison will be the Vikings #2 WR and will have some massive fantasy weeks
Buccaneers’ defense is still good against the running game
Rachaad White looked flat
Baker Mayfield really likes Mike Evans and wants to get him the ball as much as possible
Panthers vs. Falcons:
Desmond Ridder is not good enough to make Kyle Pitts or Drake London startable
Tyler Allgeier is also an extremely talented RB and is not going away anytime soon
Bijan Robinson is exactly who we thought he was: a strong and fast runner
The Panthers wide receivers did not look great
Cardinals vs. Commanders:
Zach Ertz still looked like one of the favorite passing targets on the Cardinals very bad offense
Brian Robinson got a large volume of carries and will be a solid flex player to have
Sam Howell didn’t look the best but he also didn’t look terrible. His offensive line was struggling and the Commanders had some drops on throws that were catchable
Jaguars vs. Colts:
Calvin Ridley is back and still as good as he once was
Anthony Richardson looked solid and can be a decent QB pickup
Michael Pittman Jr. had a high target share and could have another decent year even though people were not excited about him going into the season
Travis Etienne looked fast and like a great all-around player
49ers vs. Steelers:
Brandon Aiyuk looked the like 49ers main receiver
Everyone on the 49ers offense is worth owning (Kittle, Samuel, McCaffery, Purdy, etc.)
The Steelers offense looked the same as it did last year: disappointing
Christian McCaffery still is the top RB
Allen Robinson led the Steelers in targets and may fill the role of Diontae Johnson while he is out
Titans vs. Saints:
Ryan Tannehill was atrocious
Derek Henry will suffer fantasy wise due to how bad the rest of his team is
Chris Olave looked like a top 10 WR in PPR leagues
DeAndre Hopkins had a better target share than expected
Raiders vs. Broncos:
Josh Jacobs looked a little out of football shape (probably related to him holding out early in training camp)
Davante Adams is still talented and will be a top receiver again this year
Broncos offense missed Jerry Jeudy and will rely heavily on him once he is back
Eagles vs. Patriots:
Mac Jones didn’t look as bad as people expected
Kendrick Bourne is a solid receiver and is worth rostering
Ezekiel Elliott was stealing goal line carries from Rhamondre Stevenson
Dallas Goedert did nothing in week 1 but should bounce back and is a good buy-low candidate
Kenneth Gainwell looked fantastic and should be picked up if available. He looked like the best Eagles running back so far
Rams vs. Seahawks:
Puka Nacua looks like he will fill Cooper Kupp’s role while he is out
The Rams are still good and their decline was blown out of proportion
Cam Akers looked terrible, he had a decent amount of carries but did almost nothing with them
The Seahawks offense didn’t look great but they were also dealing with two OL injuries that made things tougher
Dolphins vs. Chargers:
Joshua Kelley should be picked up immediately. He looked better than Ekeler and will have a high handcuff and standalone value
Tua Tagovailoa didn’t look Jaylen Waddle’s way enough
Packers vs. Bears:
Roschon Johnson looked like the better Bears’ running back
Romeo Doubs looked great even in his limited snaps
Jordan Love actually looked decent and might be worth picking up if you have QB troubles
AJ Dillon is not very good, however Aaaron Jones looked fantastic
Cowboys vs. Giants:
Tony Pollard looked awesome and the Cowboys used him in all situations
Darren Waller will be very good once he is fully healthy
The Cowboys defense is elite and will carry many teams on certain weeks
Jake Ferguson was looking like one of Dak’s favorite targets
Bills vs. Jets:
Josh Allen did not make smart decisions and had too many turnovers
Stefon Diggs is still a top WR and the Bills will run their offense through him
Breece Hall looked electric and had some big runs
Dalton Kincaid’s usage was high and he will be a big part of the Bills’ offense
James Cook looked great and will have a promising season
Garrett Wilson looked fantastic with a few big catches
Who Passed And Failed The ‘Eye Test’ Week 1
Stats often don’t tell the full story of how someone played. Sometimes they play great but their statline might not look impressive. Other times their statline looks good but they actually looked bad on the field. These are the players who passed and failed the “eye test” in week 1:
Passed:
Calvin Ridley - WR (Jaguars)
Zay Flowers - WR (Ravens)
Brandon Aiyuk - WR (49ers)
Brock Purdy - QB (49ers)
Dalton Kincaid - TE (Bills)
Chris Olave - WR (Saints)
Rashid Saheed - WR (Saints)
Breece Hall - RB (Jets)
Failed:
Josh Allen - QB (Bills)
Van Jefferson - WR (Rams)
Cam Akers - RB (Rams)
AJ Dillon - RB (Packers)
Ryan Tanehill - QB (Titans)
Top 10 Defenses To Start For Just Week 2
Here is a list of defenses to target for just week 2 (bold = team to start). These teams have the most favorable matchups:
49ers vs. Rams: 9.4points (Projection) - Taken in 99.6% of leagues
Cowboys vs. Jets: 9.0 points (Projection) - Taken in 96.7% of leagues
Broncos vs. Commanders: 9.0 points (Projection) - Taken in 13.1% of leagues
Saints vs. Panthers: 8.8 points (Projection) - Taken in 92.5% of leagues
Giants vs. Cardinals: 7.8 points (Projection) - Taken in 17.7% of leagues
Bills vs. Raiders: 7.7 points (Projection) - Taken in 94.2% of leagues
Buccaneers vs. Bears: 7.7 points (Projection) - Taken in 15.8% of leagues
Browns vs. Steelers: 8.0 points (Projection) - Taken in 71.6% of leagues
Eagles vs. Vikings: 7.7 points (Projection) - Taken in 71.7% of leagues
Colts vs. Texans: 7.6 points (Projection) - Taken in 5.7% of leagues
Players Who Will Statistically Let You Down (2020-Present)
Every year certain players get drafted or picked up off waivers and we expect them to play well even though historically they do not. Time after time we are burned by people like Allen Robinson, Juju Smith-Schuster, and more. Here is a list of fantasy “relevant” players who have not performed as well as we'd like since 2020 yet people keep rostering them and hoping they will be studs. Only games they actually played in since 2020 were counted in these tallies.
RBs:
Kareem Hunt: 41 games played, only 13 games where he scored over 10+ fantasy points (31% of games)
Joe Mixon: 37 games played, only 18 games where he scored over 10+ fantasy points (48% of games)
Damien Harris: 34 games played, only 16 games where he scored over 10+ fantasy points (47% of games)
Gus Edwards: 17 games played, only 5 games where he scored over 10+ fantasy points (29% of games)
AJ Dillon: 36 games played, only 10 games where he scored over 10+ fantasy points (27% of games)
Devin Singletary: 47 games played, only 15 games where he scored over 10+ fantasy points (31% of games)
Cam Akers: 26 games played, only 9 games where he scored over 10+ fantasy points (34% of games)
WRs:
Brandin Cooks: 45 games played, only 15 games where he scored over 10+ fantasy points (33% of games)
Terry McLaurin: 49 games played, only 18 games where he scored over 10+ fantasy points (36% of games)
Allen Robinson: 37 games played, only 8 games where he scored over 10+ fantasy points (21% of games)
Juju Smith-Schuster: 34 games played, only 11 games where he scored over 10+ fantasy points (32% of games)
Adam Thielen: 46 games played, only 19 games where he scored over 10+ fantasy points (41% of games)
Kadarius Toney: 9 games played, only 3 games where he scored over 10+ fantasy points (33% of games)
Van Jefferson: 27 games played, only 6 games where he scored over 10+ fantasy points (22% of games)
Chase Claypool: 31 games played, only 9 games where he scored over 10+ fantasy points (29% of games)
Robert Woods: 31 games played, only 11 games where he scored over 10+ fantasy points (25% of games)
DJ Moore: 49 games played, only 20 games where he scored over 10+ fantasy points (40% of games)
Jerry Jeudy: 33 games played, only 9 games where he scored over 10+ fantasy points (27% of games)
Courtland Sutton: 33 games played, only 5 games where he scored over 10+ fantasy points (15% of games)
Odell Beckham Jr: 21 games played, only 4 games where he scored over 10+ fantasy points (19% of games)
Darnell Mooney: 37 games played, only 11 games where he scored over 10+ fantasy points (29% of games)
Michael Gallup: 34 games played, only 5 games where he scored over 10+ fantasy points (14% of games)
Mike Williams: 39 games played, only 15 games where he scored over 10+ fantasy points (38% of games)
TEs:
Darren Waller: 33 games played, only 16 games where he scored over 8+ fantasy points (48% of games)
Cole Kmet: 42 games played, only 7 games where he scored over 8+ fantasy points (16% of games)
Kyle Pitts: 26 games played, only 5 games where he scored over 8+ fantasy points (19% of games)
David Njoku: 31 games played, only 10 games where he scored over 8+ fantasy points (32% of games)
Dawson Knox: 37 games played, only 11 games where he scored over 8+ fantasy points (29% of games)
Gerald Everett: 28 games played, only 9 games where he scored over 8+ fantasy points (32% of games)
QBs:
Daniel Jones: 41 games played, only 20 games where he scored over 15+ fantasy points (48% of games)
Mac Jones: 32 games played, only 13 games where he scored over 15+ fantasy points (40% of games)
The Jordan Addison Emergence Is Coming
Rookie WR Jordan Addison has really impressed through the first two weeks of the season. In the Vikings’ first game he caught 4/6 targets for 61 yards and a TD. In their second game he caught 3/5 targets for 72 yards and a TD. His role looks like it is increasing each week and Addison should see plenty of opportunities moving forward. Vikings’ WR KJ Osborn had some big drops Thursday night so don’t be surprised if Addison takes some targets from him. The Vikings defense also allows a lot of points and does not perform well. This usually means the Vikings offense is on the field a whole lot more since their defense isn’t making a lot of stops. This is good news for anyone who owns a part of the Vikings’ offense since they will have plenty of opportunities each game. Addison has the talent and chance to be a WR2 the rest of the season if he keeps it up.
What People Think Of RB Alexander Mattison After Two Games
In his first two games as the Vikings’ starting RB, Alexander Mattison hasn’t done much with his limited opportunity. So far he had 11 carries for 34 yards in week 1 and 8 carries for 28 yards in week 2. A lot of fantasy managers are already considering him a bust and were expecting more out of the RB. However, it should be noted that the Vikings’ OL has been dealing with injuries and their backup OL has played two of the best defensive lines in the league so it was bound to not go well for the Vikings. The Vikings’ schedule will also ease up and we will hopefully see better weeks from Alexander Mattison. He’ll definitely have some better days but at best he’s a low RB2 based on his current volume.
Is RB Tyler Allgeier Worth Starting?
If you look at Falcons’ RB Tyler Allgeier’s last 5 games (including last season) he has scored 21.6, 11.7, 15.5, 13.5, and 21.4 fantasy points (standard). This is an RB2 level of production, borderline RB1. Obviously the Falcons’ just drafted RB Bijan Robinson who is their main back going forward but can we expect to see Tyler Allgeier being worth starting even as their backup? Many believe so. People believe that both of these RBs can be a 1A 1B tandem and can both produce big fantasy weeks. Their duo production probably won’t last all year, however it looks promising in the early part of the season as the Falcons’ are still easing Robinson into their offense. The Falcons play the Packers this weekend who are currently ranked 29th in rushing defense. If the Falcons can get out to an early lead, expect both RBs to get a lot of carries since they are a run heavy team when they are not in a negative game script.
Injury Updates:
The Entire Patriots’ Offensive Line Is Injured…Every Single One Of Them
The entire New England offensive line plus one OL backup are all dealing with injuries. Some are not that serious but you still never love seeing an entire offensive line on the injury report going into the week. The Patriots OL was already banged up going into week 1 and they looked ok in their game against the Eagles. However, these injuries will be worth monitoring this week leading up to Sunday’s game. If their OL is still dealing with injuries going into Sunday, we might see a hit to the Patriots running game.
Travis Kelce Will Play This Sunday
Kelce owners rejoice! Travis Kelce will play this Sunday against the Jaguars. The Chiefs’ offense will definitely be happy to see him back out there. He sat out in week 1 due to a knee injury but is ready to go in week 2.
Austin Ekeler Not Expected To Travel With Team This Weekend
Austin Ekeler is still dealing with an ankle injury and is now doubtful to play Sunday against the Tennessee Titans. Reports have come out saying that Ekeler is not expected to travel with the team to Nashville this weekend. By the sounds of this it seems like he will miss week 2 so Joshua Kelley owners get ready to fire him up instead.
Puka Nacua Expected To Be “Ready To Go” By Sunday
Rams’ head coach Sean McVay said that he expects rookie WR Puka Nacua to be “ready to go” this Sunday. Nacua was one of the hottest waiver wire pickups this week so anyone who owns him will be happy to see him play. The Rams take on the 49ers who have one of the league’s best defenses so it will be a good test to see actually how good Nacua is if he ends up playing.
WR Diontae Johnson Rumored To Be Sidelined “A Few Weeks”
Steelers’ Diontae Johnson is expected to be sidelined for a few weeks due to a hamstring injury he suffered Sunday vs. the 49ers. It seems like the Steelers will have to rely heavily on WR George Pickens to fill the void Johnson leaves. WR Allen Robinson also led the team last week in receiving yards and targets so maybe we will see the Steelers lean on him more as well.
TE Darren Waller Still Dealing With Hamstring Injury That Could Linger All Year
Reports came out this week that Darren Waller is still dealing with a hamstring injury that is bothering him and could linger. It’s the same hamstring injury that forced him onto the IR last year with the Raiders. The Giants also said it’s more of a “nerve” issue than it is a muscle issue. This is not ideal for any Waller owners as it’s looking like this could be an up and down ride for the TE again this season.
Enjoying the bi-weekly recap and want more?
Subscribe to our premium plan to get access to our daily recaps which is like this but sent every day instead. No more having to wait! Premium also include player rankings, trade values, and waiver wire advice. Use promo code ‘FREETRIAL’ when you sign up to test it out for one month totally free. You can always cancel at any time after that if you are not 100% satisfied.