Bi-Weekly Fantasy Football Recap - Tuesday 9/19
TLDR:
Don’t have time to read the entire newsletter? Check out the bullet points below for a quick recap of everything going on this week.
Player News:
RB Christian McCaffery Played In 100% Of 49ers Offensive Snaps Sunday
WR Nico Collins Puts Up Most Yards By A Texan Since DeAndre Hopkins
RB Joshua Kelley Has Not Looked Great In Games Where Austin Ekeler Sits
Team News:
RB Bijan Robinson Will Continue To Split Carries With Tyler Allgeier
Rams Sit RB Cam Akers Sunday And Are Now Looking To Trade Him
49ers’ HC Says They Need To Do A Better Job With Their RB Rotation
Reddit Recap:
Does WR Puka Nacua Have Top 5 Potential The Rest Of The Season?
Through 2 Weeks The Overall RB3 On The Season Is… Brian Robinson Jr
Injury Report:
RB Nick Chubb Suffers Horrific Leg Injury And Is Out For The Season
RB Saquon Barkley Suffers Ankle Sprain And Is Now Expected To Be Sidelined For 3 Weeks
RB David Montgomery Could Miss A Couple Weeks With Thigh Injury
*Read the full breakdown of everything below!
Player News:
WR Puka Nacua Sets An NFL Record
If you don’t know the name Puka Nacua yet, get ready to hear it a bunch. The Rams' rookie WR is already looking like a star on the field and set an NFL record Sunday for most receptions by a rookie in the first two games of their career. Through two games, Nacua had 35 targets, 25 receptions, and 266 yards. He is already on pace for over 2000 receiving yards just after two games. Nacua is also averaging 10.6 yards per reception which is absolutely unreal. He is already looking like the main league winner this year and if he can keep up his production, could finish as a top 5 fantasy player this year. In Sunday’s game against the 49ers he had 20 targets. If he gets half of that once Kupp returns, he will still see around 10 targets a game which is better than most receivers in the league. QB Matt Stafford loves throwing to him too so we shouldn’t see Puka Nacua going away anytime soon. He is the real deal.
RB Christian McCaffery Played In 100% Of 49ers Offensive Snaps Sunday
In a very rare feat, RB Christian McCaffery played in 100% of the 49ers offensive snaps during Sunday’s game against the Rams. The 49ers said last week they were going to give McCaffery more breaks this year but it looks like they are already going back on their word. Can you blame them though? When you have a running back that good you want to play them as much as you can. Through the first two games, McCaffery had 20 carries for 116 yards and a TD and also 22 carries for 152 yards and a TD. Not bad at all for the star RB, he is already looking like the top RB back once again.
WR Nico Collins Puts Up Most Yards By A Texan Since DeAndre Hopkins
In week 2, Nico Collins put up 146 receiving yards on just 7 receptions. This is the most yards by a Texan receiver since DeAndre Hopkins had 147 yards in week 17 of the 2018 season. Hearing that crazy stat has to make Nico Collins owners feeling good today. He is already looking great this year and like someone who can be consistently started and not second guessed. In week 1 he also had 6 receptions for 80 yards —the young WR is shaping up to be a crazy late round draft steal.
QB Justin Fields’ Game Film Looks Really Bad
The Bears are now 0-2 and look like the worst team in the league once again. There are a lot of things going wrong for them, one of them being QB Justin Fields. During Sunday’s game he went 16/29 passing with only 1 TD and 2 interceptions. Everyone was expecting Fields to have a better passing year but he has somehow managed to regress. If you look at the video highlight linked below, you will see Fields not throw to 3 wide open players and instead run right into the defensive line taking a sack. Fields is disappointing a lot of people and it looks like he will need to go back to being a running threat if he wants to stay relevant. Right now his passing game is just not there.
RB Joshua Kelley Has Not Looked Great In Games Where Austin Ekeler Sits
With Austin Ekeler sitting out this week, many people are counting on RB Joshua Kelley to fill his shoes and have a big week. Historically though, Kelley has not played well when Ekeler sits out. Kelley has played in seven games without Austin Ekeler; in those seven games his average statline is 8 carries for 18 yards, 2 receptions for 11 yards, and no TDs. Joshua Kelley averages 3.9 fantasy points when Ekeler is out which is not great. However, it should be noted that in these 7 games he has never been the starting RB which explains his poor stats. Now that he is leading their backfield this week, Kelley should produce better stats than he has in the past.
Team News:
RB Bijan Robinson Will Continue To Split Carries With Tyler Allgeier
Falcons’ head coach Arthur Smith continues to upset fantasy managers and said that the team will continue to split carries between their two RBs. NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport said “expect them to split carries, while Bijan Robinson may get the start, he is not going to be the bell cow. This will be evenly divided, driving fantasy fans crazy”. Although fantasy managers would like to see the Falcons run Robinson into the ground, it’s not going to happen. However, the good news is that the Falcons run the ball so much that it might not even matter if they split carries. Last week they combined for 34 carries, if you times that by 17 weeks it is nearly 600 rushing attempts which is too much for just one player to handle without wearing them down. It is probably for the best that they split carries considering how often the team runs. Both RBs have the potential and opportunity to be studs together this year.
Rams Sit RB Cam Akers Sunday And Are Now Looking To Trade Him
Right before Sunday’s game, the Rams announced that RB Cam Akers would be deactivated for week 2. This news was surprising to people considering Akers was healthy, however word later came out that head coach Sean McVay made this decision for the team and felt like it was the best move for the Rams. We don’t know all the details yet but it appears like Akers' time in LA is coming to an end and he will now be on the trading block. Akers had 22 attempts for 29 yards in week 1 and did not look very good. The Rams’ other RB Kyren Williams had 14 carries for 52 yards and a TD in week 1, and 15 carries for 52 yards and 2 TDs in week 2. It looks like they will be rolling out with Williams as their main RB now, so if he is somehow still on your waivers pick him up immediately. He’s already got potential to be a league winner.
The Tennessee Titans Run Defense Is No Joke
The Titans have not allowed a RB to go over 66 yards since week 1 of last year. That’s right, Tennessee has gone 18 full weeks without allowing 66 rushing yards or more from a RB. Saquon Barkley was the last RB to put up a lot of yards against them – he ran for 164 yards in week 1 of 2022 but no one has ran well against them since. Here is a full breakdown of how many yards RBs have ran against them since last year:
2022:
Week 2: James Cook (Bills) - 11 rushes for 55 yards
Week 3: Josh Jacobs (Raiders) - 13 rushes for 66 yards
Week 4: Jonathan Taylor (Colts) - 20 rushes for 42 yards
Week 5: Brian Robinson Jr. (Commanders) - 9 rushes for 22 yards
Week 6: BYE
Week 7: Jonathan Taylor (Colts) - 10 rushes for 58 yards
Week 8: Dameon Pierce (Texans) - 15 rushes for 35 yards
Week 9: Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs) - 5 rushes for 5 yards
Week 10: Melvin Gordon (Broncos) - 7 rushes for 24 yards
Week 11: Aaron Jones (Packers) - 12 rushes for 40 yards
Week 12: Samaje Perine (Bengals) - 17 rushes for 58 yards
Week 13: Miles Sanders (Eagles) - 10 rushes for 24 yards
Week 14: Travis Etienne (Jaguars) - 17 rushes for 32 yards
Week 15: Austin Ekeler (Chargers) - 12 rushes for 58 yards
Week 16: Royce Freeman (Texans) - 16 rushes for 32 yards
Week 17: Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys) - 10 rushes for 37 yards
Week 18: Travis Etienne (Jaguars) - 17 rushes for 17 yards
2023:
Week 1: Jamaal Williams (Saints) - 18 rushes for 45 yards
Week 2: Joshua Kelley (Chargers) - 13 rushes for 39 yard
As you can see the Titans run defense is very good and you should be cautious starting a RB playing against them.
49ers’ HC Says They Need To Do A Better Job With Their RB Rotation
Head coach Kyle Shanahan says the 49ers have to do a better job with their RB rotation — Elijah Mitchell didn't see any carries and Shanahan said that was NOT the plan. Christian McCaffrey has 23 carries and was in 100% of San Francisco's offensive snaps on Sunday. Although McCaffery owners love seeing him get plenty of action, the best thing the 49ers can do for him is limit his carries a little. McCaffery can only handle so much and if they want him to last all year they will need to lower his touches and split carries with Elijah Mitchell.
Reddit Recap:
Each week we read every Reddit post on r/fantasyfootball and all the comments. We then summarize the most important threads and discussions below.
Week 2 Overreactions
Now that week 2 is in the books, people on Reddit shared their hottest takes from this week’s games:
WR AJ Brown is a boom-or-bust WR3
WR Jahan Dotson isn’t the draft steal everyone was expecting him to be
WR Ja'Marr Chase is actually a decoy for Tee Higgins
TE Kyle Pitts is not worth rostering
WR Puka Nacua is the new Cooper Kupp
WR Nico Collins is a set and forget the rest of the season
The running back waiver wire is already barren and will be all year
RB Brian Robinson Jr. is a RB1
RB AJ Dillon is a waste of a roster space
QB Justin Fields looks droppable and will continue to regress
RB Kyren Williams is already a league winner
Top Waiver Wire Adds After Week 2
Whether you’re dealing with injuries, low scoring, or just need a fresh start here are the players you should target to pick up this week:
WR Nico Collins (Texans) - 62% rostered ESPN / Yahoo
RB Kyren Williams (Rams) - 60% rostered ESPN / 63% rostered Yahoo
RB Zack Moss (Colts) - 32% rostered ESPN / 54% rostered Yahoo
WR Tank Dell (Texans) - 3% rostered ESPN / 6% rostered Yahoo
RB Gus Edwards (Ravens) - 32% rostered ESPN / 65% rostered Yahoo
TE Hunter Henry (Patriots) - 34% rostered ESPN / 56% rostered Yahoo
WR Josh Reynolds (Lions) - 4% rostered ESPN / 14% rostered Yahoo
TE Zach Ertz (Cardinals) - 47% rostered ESPN / 11% rostered Yahoo
WR Tutu Atwell (Rams) - 31% rostered ESPN / 26% rostered Yahoo
K Brandon Aubrey (Cowboys) - 4% rostered ESPN / 8% rostered Yahoo
Players That Are Droppable After 2 Weeks
Although we are just two weeks into the season some players are already droppable:
TE Kyle Pitts (Falcons)
WR Van Jefferson (Rams)
WR Odell Beckham Jr. (Ravens)
RB Antonio Gibson (Commanders)
DEF New York (Giants)
RB Sean Tucker (Buccaneers)
RB AJ Dillon (Packers)
Which QBs Target TEs The Most
Some QBs like to target the TE position more than others, and usually it's the ones with good TEs to throw to. If you find yourself digging around the TE wasteland and looking for someone to pick up, you’re probably better off looking at TE snaps and routes rather than QB target rate. Take a look at this chart below to see which teams have the most pass attempts as well as TE targets each game:
As you can see, the Ravens, Cardinals, Chiefs, and Colts have thrown the most to TEs, and the Packers, Bill, Jets, and Falcons throw to them the least. If you need to pick up a TE you should target someone on a team in the top right quadrant of this graph because they get the most TE targets as well as QB pass attempts each game. Using this chart, here are some TEs you should target (outside of the big names like Kelce and Andrews), and others who you should be cautious rostering as they might disappoint you based on low targets and pass attempts.
Potential TEs To Target:
Zach Ertz (Cardinals)
Pat Freiermuth (Steelers)
Hayden Hurst (Panthers)
Potential TE Disappointments:
Cole Kmet (Bears)
Dalton Kincaid (Bills)
Kyle Pitts (Falcons)
Luke Musgrave (Packers)
Does WR Puka Nacua Have Top 5 Potential The Rest Of The Season?
After having a historic first two weeks, many people are all in on Rams WR Puka Nacua and believe he is already the league winner and will finish as a top 5 player. Nacua is leading the league in receptions, targets, and is also 2nd in yards behind Justin Jefferson. He is looking like the real deal. Trusted fantasy analysts already have him ranked in the top 15 receivers and also top 25 players overall. This shows the praise he is getting from the community. The real question around Nacua is what his target share will look like once Cooper Kupp is back. People are worried that once Kupp is back he will eat into Puka Nacua’s targets. However that may not be the case. If you look at how Kupp lines up he is in the slot 56.7%, wide 37.6%, and elsewhere 5.7% of times. Nacua on the other hand is lined up in the slot just 29.7% and wide 70.3% of the time. There is a good chance that once Kupp returns he will stay as the slot receiver and Nacua will be the Rams’ wide out option. If this is the case, Nacua should still see plenty of targets and fantasy players can expect his floor to be similar to that of WR Robert Woods a few years ago when he was on the Rams.
Through 2 Weeks The Overall RB3 On The Season Is… Brian Robinson Jr
In surprising news, the third highest scoring running back so far is Commanders’ RB Brian Robinson Jr. He is just a few points behind Christian McCaffery through two weeks which many people did not see coming. Robinson scored 13 points in week 1 and 28 in week 2. He is looking much better this year but is getting little attention. Obviously it's still early in the year and anything can change, but it's looking like Robinson has taken over the Commanders offense and like RB Antonio Gibson is a non-factor this year. If that continues, Robinson Jr will have plenty of opportunities this season and can maintain his level of play.
Don’t Hit The Panic Button On RB Dameon Pierce Just Yet
Through two games, Texans’ RB Dameon Pierce has not looked too good. In week 1 he had 11 carries for 38 yards and in week 2 he had 15 carries for 31 yards. Not only has Pierce struggled to get more than 40 yards in a game, he also has no TDs so far this year. So what’s going on with him? Well for one, the Texans’ offensive line is completely decimated. They are dealing with a lot of injuries right now and have been starting 2nd, 3rd, and 4th string players. Their OL is so injured that they had to move players around to positions that are not natural to them. For example, they have backup left guards playing left tackle, centers playing left guard, left tackles playing right tackle – it’s all a mess. Good news is that a lot of their injured linemen should be coming back soon and that will help make things easier for Pierce. The Texans’ schedule will also face softer defensive lines moving forward. So if you have Dameon Pierce don’t panic yet with his poor performances, better days should be coming for him and the Texans.
Is RB Najee Harris Startable Anymore?
Although Steelers’ RB Najee Harris is coming off a 1,000 yard season, he looks absolutely awful this year. It doesn’t help that the Steelers offensive line also looks terrible, but Najee has looked slow and sluggish on the field. The Steelers’ offensive coordinator Matt Canada has also hurt Najee Harris’ value with bad play calling. Harris is a powerful inside zone runner yet Canada keeps calling plays where Harris is getting pitches 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage. Harris also has not been involved in the passing game a lot so far (if he can get more targets can increase his production). Najee Harris can sit on your bench for now until he starts putting up better numbers. One thing to keep in mind is that the Steelers have also played two of the best run defenses in the league (49ers & Browns). Better days should be coming for Harris and the Steelers.
Injury Updates:
RB Nick Chubb Suffers Horrific Leg Injury And Is Out For The Season
During Monday night’s game, Browns’ RB Nick Chubb suffered a horrific leg injury ending his season. The Browns believe that he suffered a possible knee dislocation as well as damage to multiple ligaments. The injury took place on the same knee he has injured in the past, so this is really unfortunate news for Nick Chubb. The Browns HC announced that as of now RB Jerome Ford would now lead the Cleveland backfield. However some reports came out Tuesday that the Browns reached out to former running back Kareem Hunt to possibly discuss a reunion, so stayed tuned.
RB Saquon Barkley Suffers Ankle Sprain And Is Now Expected To Be Sidelined For 3 Weeks
An MRI showed that Giants’ RB Saquon Barkley suffered an “ordinary” ankle sprain that is expected to sideline him for three weeks. While he is out, the Giants will use backup Matt Breida to fill in for Barkley. Although Breida now gets the starting job, he is not worth picking up unless you are in a deep league and need a RB desperately. People don’t expect him to do much over these next three weeks and after that it will be Barkley’s team again.
QB Joe Burrow Tweaks Calf In Sunday’s Game
Bengals’ QB Joe Burrow said that he tweaked his right calf at the end of the game Sunday. Burrow said that he will see how it feels Monday and go from there. The Bengals are currently 0-2 and not off to the start they wanted. If Burrow ends up missing time, this would be a big hit to the team and not ideal for anyone who owns a part of the Bengals offense. We will have to wait and see what news comes out this week regarding the star QB.
RB David Montgomery Could Miss A Couple Weeks With Thigh Injury
Lions’ RB David Montgomery said that it could take a couple weeks for his quad injury to fully heal. Montgomery left the game Sunday after suffering from a deep thigh bruise after an awkward tackle. Although he said it may take a couple weeks to heal, there has been no official word on if he will be out for the next game or not. If he does miss time, expect rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs to see more touches in week 3.
QB Anthony Richardson Leaves Game Early With Concussion
Rookie QB Anthony Richardson left the game early Sunday after suffering a concussion. Richardson was looking very good in the first part of the game and rushed for 2 TDs himself. He has looked like the best rookie QB this year and has been a solid fantasy starter so far. Hopefully he is not out too long because he is a key part of the Colts’ offense.
TE Greg Dulcich Placed On Injury Reserve
Broncos’ TE Greg Dulcich was placed on the IR this Saturday after dealing with a hamstring injury. He will miss at least 4 games and be sidelined until week 5. With Dulcich out, expect Russell Wilson to throw more to WRs Sutton, Jeudy, and Mims Jr.
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